Rücklagenfonds I

BPM - Berlin Portfolio Management GmbH

Risk appetite on the stock markets was once again clear in July and carried over to the risk premiums on investment-grade corporate bonds. Euphoria and optimism prevailed despite the epochal changes in global trade and the unpredictable consequences of US President Trump's "great victory" in the tariff war.
Despite an extremely tense environment, many investors are currently feeling particularly carefree. Bond issuers are seizing the opportunity to issue new bonds and often launch exchange offers for old bonds at the same time. This enables them to secure some of their financing requirements well in advance and at conditions that until recently hardly anyone would have thought possible. This is very forward-looking, as no one knows what the future holds. Even central banks more or less openly admit that they are largely at a loss when it comes to economic and price risks.
Monetary policy stimulus for the bond markets from central banks is therefore in short supply at present. The US Federal Reserve is in a particularly uncomfortable position. It must balance the US government's push for sharp interest rate cuts with data that argues more for maintaining the current interest rate level. Not least, these blatant attempts to directly influence the de facto independent Fed were the cause of the swings in US yields in July.
The performance of the Rücklagenfonds was thus ultimately determined by opposing market forces. On the one hand, there was a rise in yields in the maturity range relevant to the strategy of up to 5 years - both in euros and US dollars. However, this was more than offset by the sharp decline in risk premiums on investment grade bonds, especially for debtors from the eurozone and emerging markets.
As a result, we again experienced a month of extremely strong performance. Everything continues to favor short-term bonds with high credit ratings, especially in times of great upheaval and uncertain prospects.

2025/07/31